Follow up SPX using Elliot waves

UPDATE: 8/9/2015


The fourth wave could be contracting triangle as shown below

UPDATE: 2/9/2015

As the prediction, SPX moves to fifth wave which take price to new low.

After a sharp decline of world wide stocks, I thought the major new wave has begun and we could see indices and commodities reach to unpredictable level. Anyway as a trader you big goal is to make your wallet full of money regardless what is happen to world economy. $SPX is good example of what I said earlier. let's start from July top at 2130. The decline from that top to 2065 was a first wave and price retreated to 2103 forming flat wave. After then the rapid decline that shocked everybody - and this how third wave behaves- to took price to 1870 level. See chart below.

fourth wave is ongoing and it retreated 50% of third wave, however it could be reach to 62% level near to upper line of declining channel. As rule the fourth wave should not be overlapped with first wave unless the count is wrong. That mean at best situation SPX should not reach to 2065. Chart below will focus on fourth wave.

Here wave c in fourth wave clearly consist five uprising minor waves and still there some room for last advance to 2013 level. After that I predict the SPx will fall rapidly as wave three in impulse declining wave. Hope find it useful. 

How does my technical analysis work? NEM

UPDATE 17/9/2015

According to 15 min chart the NEM in third wave which started yesterday. the resistance is somewhere near 17.5$ and stock need to rest there and continue to confirm rising trend. Yesterdays there was high volum on call optionI of October.

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read from psychology books that human minds have different kind of  intelligence and the most one I get is visual intelligence. By watching the charts for long time you can easily recognize the patterns, trends and combine indicators. Let's see the NEM chart for example and here I start from weekly to 15 min charts. note the C in chart is inaccurate and it could be in previous top.

As you see the stock begun a downward trend in mid of 2011 till now. Starting from 2014 the price entered a consolidation phase which is called also de-trending. A huge broadening pattern as shown in chart above. Please don't confuse with Elliott wave counts for correction waves. I expect the prices need one more jump at least 50% of e decline. let's see daily chart.

Here I used elliott wave count because I find it fit with it. I focused in e wave and it clearly represent the flat correction wave which form three wave abc. the c wave completed four of its five waves and the last one in ongoing now. Divergences of RSI and MACD good signals to reverse the trend but not always works. let's zoom in to last wave.

Now the 15 min chart of NEM shows that the wave c is completed and price starts new rising wave which expect to be reach at least the 50% of previous trend 19 - 20$. I expect the stock will rise tomorrow to form wave i and then decline to form wave ii which is best buy entry. The analysis need revised if the bottom at 15.4$ is broken. Generally you will find this analysis works with other gold stocks.


This how does my technical analysis work. however you have to manage you trade using stop loss and control you emotion. Remember don't put all eggs in one basket.

Dollar Index USD

Here the dollar index forming nice impulse wave . The rising from 79 to the 100 is meaningful and shows the respect to the up rising channel. From the top the prices enter a consolidation phase  followed by minor downward five waves. The predicted solid resistance near 91 - 92 which in 38% fibo of third wave and up trend line parallel to the line connecting waves 1 and 3.

GFI

I have strong believe that gold stocks could move a massive rally just when market find ground. The weekly chart of GFI shows that there a bearish trap below the support.

On daily chart the GFI follows Gold in price actions. GFI broke the downward channel as shown below and the chance to rally is predicted

Follow up the GOLD

The precious metal is shining now and good buying chance is about to created. Currently the GOLD is confined within falling channel and the estimation to break it up is high. RSI shows meaningful sings since it reach to 70 which indicate a real conversion in trend.  Keep close to it. the GOLD is in my watch-list.