Heron Therapeutics Inc (HRTX)

UPDATE: 13/9/2015
Stock formed dark cloud cover candlestick which indicate to bearish status. If you do not have idea about this kind of candlestick just google it.

I checked its fundamental status and i didn't find something deserve to mention except the fact that the company is fundamentally so bad. This current situation of company could support my elliott-based analysis. For example, the price of stock is eighth times of its book value and there is no earning or profit company made during last report. The brief review of fundamental status of company could be useful in case if you have not  trade such stock.

weekly chart of stock shows a good and clear waves setup. There is a complete rising 5-waves and then sideways as flat corrective wave and lastly there is a sharp rising wave. Although there is another scenario which consider the corrective wave as triangle but it doesn't change anything.
you will see on chart that I expect two counting, one impulse wave 1,2 and 3 and other corrective wave A B and C, coming days will prove only one of them.

Daily chart below is zooming in the last sharp rising in weekly chart. As you move to smaller chart you will discover the tiny waves and this is good if you are daily, swing or position trader like me.
Here you sees the almost complete 5 waves of C (or 3 if you are in bullish momentum). Most of Elliott waves guideline are present in chart. For example there is good channeling relationship among waves, alternation between wave 2 and 4, and throw-over of fifth wave.

What is the next?  Unfortunately the 5 wave didn't show a clear wave structure rising doubt about if it will finish here or still there is room for more advance. However the light volume with increasing 10%  as well as divergence in RSI doesn't support bullish view. I will watch this stock for any opportunity could be made.

If find yourself confuse with Elliot wave theory and familiar with classic technical analysis particularly chart pattern, the below chart for you. This pattern called broadening triangle where price moves up and down within area between two broadening lines. Here another reason for step a side and watch good opportunity for sell stock or buy a PUT option.

Should I trade against the trend (MU)

UPDATE: 9/9/2015

Nice bearish engulfing candle confirming the bearish counting. I expect a new low price next weeks.


UPDATE: 8/9/2015

Alternatively, the five waves are completed and we are in correction wave.


sometimes when you analysis stock, you probably find good change to gain some money even you entry against the ongoing trend. For example see the MU chart below:

Here and according Elliott wave principle, the stock fell in three clear and complete three wave which mean there still two waves have to take place, a forth wave (corrective) and a fifth wave (motive). The first wave was a leading diagonal wave and gives good indication that price will fall rapidly. Second wave retrace 38.2% of wave  (i) as zigzag corrective wave. The wave (iii) was very impulse wave creating a huge gap in price and that is natural behavior of third waves.

Now the forth wave is ongoing however we need some time to reveal what kind of corrective wave will be. Alternation in time and pattern between wave 2 and 4 is powerful tool in Elliott wave theory. As wave (ii) was simple, sharp and short, I expect wave (iv) will be sideways, something like flat, double two or double three, or triangle. (ii) was retraced 38.2% of wave (i) so it possible the wave (iv) will retraced 61.8% of wave (iii).

I find this scenario is accurate since the divergence in indicators support the my hypothesis, otherwise there is another possible counting if the scenario unverified  by actual price acting.

Follow up SPX using Elliot waves

UPDATE: 8/9/2015


The fourth wave could be contracting triangle as shown below

UPDATE: 2/9/2015

As the prediction, SPX moves to fifth wave which take price to new low.

After a sharp decline of world wide stocks, I thought the major new wave has begun and we could see indices and commodities reach to unpredictable level. Anyway as a trader you big goal is to make your wallet full of money regardless what is happen to world economy. $SPX is good example of what I said earlier. let's start from July top at 2130. The decline from that top to 2065 was a first wave and price retreated to 2103 forming flat wave. After then the rapid decline that shocked everybody - and this how third wave behaves- to took price to 1870 level. See chart below.

fourth wave is ongoing and it retreated 50% of third wave, however it could be reach to 62% level near to upper line of declining channel. As rule the fourth wave should not be overlapped with first wave unless the count is wrong. That mean at best situation SPX should not reach to 2065. Chart below will focus on fourth wave.

Here wave c in fourth wave clearly consist five uprising minor waves and still there some room for last advance to 2013 level. After that I predict the SPx will fall rapidly as wave three in impulse declining wave. Hope find it useful. 

How does my technical analysis work? NEM

UPDATE 17/9/2015

According to 15 min chart the NEM in third wave which started yesterday. the resistance is somewhere near 17.5$ and stock need to rest there and continue to confirm rising trend. Yesterdays there was high volum on call optionI of October.

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read from psychology books that human minds have different kind of  intelligence and the most one I get is visual intelligence. By watching the charts for long time you can easily recognize the patterns, trends and combine indicators. Let's see the NEM chart for example and here I start from weekly to 15 min charts. note the C in chart is inaccurate and it could be in previous top.

As you see the stock begun a downward trend in mid of 2011 till now. Starting from 2014 the price entered a consolidation phase which is called also de-trending. A huge broadening pattern as shown in chart above. Please don't confuse with Elliott wave counts for correction waves. I expect the prices need one more jump at least 50% of e decline. let's see daily chart.

Here I used elliott wave count because I find it fit with it. I focused in e wave and it clearly represent the flat correction wave which form three wave abc. the c wave completed four of its five waves and the last one in ongoing now. Divergences of RSI and MACD good signals to reverse the trend but not always works. let's zoom in to last wave.

Now the 15 min chart of NEM shows that the wave c is completed and price starts new rising wave which expect to be reach at least the 50% of previous trend 19 - 20$. I expect the stock will rise tomorrow to form wave i and then decline to form wave ii which is best buy entry. The analysis need revised if the bottom at 15.4$ is broken. Generally you will find this analysis works with other gold stocks.


This how does my technical analysis work. however you have to manage you trade using stop loss and control you emotion. Remember don't put all eggs in one basket.

Dollar Index USD

Here the dollar index forming nice impulse wave . The rising from 79 to the 100 is meaningful and shows the respect to the up rising channel. From the top the prices enter a consolidation phase  followed by minor downward five waves. The predicted solid resistance near 91 - 92 which in 38% fibo of third wave and up trend line parallel to the line connecting waves 1 and 3.

GFI

I have strong believe that gold stocks could move a massive rally just when market find ground. The weekly chart of GFI shows that there a bearish trap below the support.

On daily chart the GFI follows Gold in price actions. GFI broke the downward channel as shown below and the chance to rally is predicted

Follow up the GOLD

The precious metal is shining now and good buying chance is about to created. Currently the GOLD is confined within falling channel and the estimation to break it up is high. RSI shows meaningful sings since it reach to 70 which indicate a real conversion in trend.  Keep close to it. the GOLD is in my watch-list. 

Good set up of stock in Kuwait financial exchange

Updated (8-20):  Kuwait stocks are avoided till the index find ground.



I've followed this stock for more than 10 days ago waiting to retest the broken resistance at 41.5 Fils (small Kuwaiti currency like pence). Unfortunately, I was sleeping when the confirmation signal triggered. However, there still a change to follow the trend and jump in tomorrow to make some money for next week.  So my plan is to buy this stock at the current level or below unless the support at 41.5 broken. My target is 47 or when the minor trend shows a relative weaken and stop loss at 41.

   

ANF where is heading?

Regardless of negative analyst opinions, ANF is showing one of pattern in technical analysis. After a Continuous  decline from top in 2011, the stock pause for a while here. The consolidation zone within 19$ to 23..$ is considered a potential shifting the trend. As trader I prefer to buy some of shares when price breakout above price area between 23$-23.6$ with high volume and the possible target is the distance between support and resistance which is 4$ for conservative trader. Remember the best trades those which are psychologically and emotionally controlled.


Weekly chart depicts the super-downward channel

Daily chart shows the consolidation area between support and resistance. Hopefully to breakout with high volume.

Update: 26/6/2015


ANF is trading near the resistance at 23.5$ (see how round number is important) and it is starting to bring attentions as long as it approaches slowly to this area. I will play man to man (football tactic which mean watching it closely) with this stock  for a possible trade.

update: 20/8/2015

the stock broke the support and it leave watch list.

Avoid Chinese stocks until $SSEC find some support

The Shanghai index is important specially when you are used to buy Chinese stocks such as BIDU or PXLW. Unfortunately, the index fell more than 12% but some chinese stocks show some strength. Lets see $SSEC chart in daily basis.

 

The free fall of $SSEC could reflect on chinese stocks. I don't know why does $SSECC fall like this but who's care since the chart tell you what should you do. $SSEC might find group near 4100 since then I don't recommend to trade chinese stocks.

After 4 years

here we go now.