OIL & gold forming a symmetrical triangle.

3 Aug.

During 1 day u can get more than 250 points. Oil show good performance but gold didn't.

 

A symmetrical  triangle formed in oil chart, which give a good opportunity to buy oil for short term target.

buy market monday, stop loss is 78.75$ , target is 79.25$

And same thing to GOLD, buy market, stop loss 1179.5$, target 1184.5$

SNDK

29 Jul

In this post I try to examine SNDK  deeply by using technical analysis.In beginning I write all note on chart.

 

the stock was in uptrend from Dec of 2008 until Jun 2010. I would use uptrend from Feb 2010 until Jun 2010 because  its represent a final uptrend wave in short to medium term.

what  make me very bearish? many reasons lets see it:

1- possible Head & Shoulders.

2- descending triangle.

3- breaking uptrend and confirmed the broke by test it.

4- RSI below 50.

5- The lower of Raff Regression channel broke.

With all this, stock don't give a clear signal to entry even short or buy PUT.

watch it.

 

DJI

6 Oct.

After long time patienting , the dji reachs to a major resistance which is last resistance if I consider the wave 2 is underway, so its good opprotunity to short depending on bearish count. definitely the stoploss will be 11250 which is a previous top, good luck.

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23 Sep.

After waiting longtime, The bullish trend has been crazed which began in late of August.. In few coming days Dji may retrace to next support.

weekly chart of Dji.

11 Sep.

60 min chart of DJI shows a rising wedge pattern that mean the uptrend started to be weak.

UPDATING...14Sep.

DJI rose yesterday and rising wedge be invalid technically however SJI still in bearish mood according on EWP and technical analysis.

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7Sep.

I was busy this weekend and I apologize to readers for tardiness of updating. Iam ignoring the Elliott wave analysis in next updating for many reasons, first one is in correction waves the precision of EWP going to be less than in impulse wave and sometimes give a deadly signal for traders.Secondly, In correction wave there are many scenario for next move and that make you decision so difficult. For a above reasons I don't use EWP in correction market (trading range market). I will use only EWP in very short term frame such as 15 min and less as a my . In another hand Iam going to depend on indicators, candlesticks and patterns.

Now, lets see chart of DJI, its so difficult to guess where it heading.

and chart DJI in 60 min, the DJI started a new powerful trend


so I expect the preceding fall is a correction .

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2Sep.

To be honest I started to doubt if market really going to fall according to what elliotticans said!. That not strange because the EWP depends on eliminate the other counting to get best one, but when other counting are still possible that makes any decision you will do it as a big fool, so you need put all possible counting in table and discussing every one then eliminate any one doesn't show any relating to the real movement of markets.By this procedure, you able to predict the next move.

So lets see what we have.I think we have bullish and bearish counting, and they sharing same percent 50% for each other when we related it to markets movement.

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30 Aug

In The prior post I mentioned that dji is about to falls. Now dji bounces as a wave 4 which should not rise above 10220 to consider it a wave 4.

In opposite opinion, dji shows a double bottom as shown in 15 min chart,so be careful.

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18 Aug

The Dji almost near to completing the wave 2

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15 Aug

The last three days were hard to market, in despite it was predicted. So, all trades will be short or PUT options consistently with market behavior.

Lets see DJI in 60 min, notice the broken trend and the declines with 4 subminor waves..

Technically, always I heard story about broken trend that prices should retest that broken trend but I supose prices should at least retrace 62% from top to bottom which is going to form.

10 Aug

I think this count is more acceptable to me because still DJI got momentum.

9 Aug

I think the counting in previous chart need to recount, I will do it in mid of next week. What a intersting thing i found it in DJI is broading wedge formed, as shown in chart above.In my opinion, DJI have room for rising next week.

broading wedge and adam bar are agree with this view.

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4 Aug

DJI touch 10700 intraday and close below it. The last update i mentioned that DJI need one more advance to complete a wave C of wave 2. Did DJI completing wave 2 or yet?

that question rise on my head all day, therefore i put 2 scenario which are all bearish but the difference is where wave iv formed. see charts

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29 Jul

Here a new update, we almost finish C wave of 2 wave, we will watch DJI closely.

27 Jul

DJI is away 30 point from 62% retracement resistance, which is a previous high.

today close was a small body candle. I think DJI didn't give a clear signal to decide if a wave 2 completed or not. Tomorrow will give us a good information.

see yeah

26 Jul

http://ta7aleel.blogspot.com/2010/07/dji-br-elliotican-perspective.html

The link above was a try of count the DJI, today i make some change in counting as showing in chart below.

The new counting is suiting the count of gold as i mentioned in previous post.

reach DJI to 11,000 area is less likely, but if its happen, i will suppose the reason is a reverse head and shoulder ( not shown in chart ).

I am out, my plan is catch ending a 2 wave which is start of 3 wave . Good luck

EUR\USD ( UPDATED REGULARLY )

29 Jul

EUR$ almost complete a 5 wave of C wave, if the counting is correct (and I supose that), EUR$ should not go higher than 1.3200, if its happen that mean wave 5 length greater than 1 and 3.

Although wave 1 equal wave 3 but I think but 5 would be shorter than other waves.

lets see

27 Jul

I prefer change the way of updating post, the new updating post will be in top.

EURUSD almost finish C wave and may see $ back to play a dominant role in forex.

i mentioned that eur-usd  forming reverse head & shoulders here

http://ta7aleel.blogspot.com/2010/07/eur-usd-possible-reverse-head-shoulders.html

I think euro-usd reach to strong resistance for many reasons :

1-  the price near to 38.2%.

2- the price near 150 MA.

3- target of reverse of H&S so close.

4-price near to previous support which is now a resistance.

all these reasons make area between 1.3060 - 1.3160 a solid resistance.

I believe that dollar will be stronger in long term but in short term there a space to make euro advance ( $ weaker).

21 Jul.

The chart show a 4 hours frame for EUR-USD, dollar decline as a correction wave ABC, as showing the C is underway, the last leg of C wave is a fifth wave, after finish fifth wave the  $ will follow the major trend as in weekly chart.

maybe see a small rally to 1.3050

 

 

 

OIL .. opportunity in 5 Min chart

although, i am bearish in long term for oil, but there a good bullish setup in very short term such as 5 min. the chart above showing a wave 4 in underway, my plan to buy oil and target is a new high i will consider it will be a 5 wave then may see a falling in prices.

Notice the guideline of elliott wave such as trendlines

Update

target reached, 50 points in 2 hours.

 1 contract X 50 X 10 = 500$

AAPL

All indicators show a weakness in trend, this consensus give strong signal to traders to be ready trading short.

In addition, AAPL chart below showing a reversal head and shoulders,maybe its support our anticipation above.

GOLD .. heading to 1000$

According to elliott wave principle, gold may heading to 1000$ that create a good opportunity to plan a sale trades during gold fall. 

For those who concern to stocks, i choose GDX. its pretty chart 

FDO

Perfect head and shoulders formed in FDO.

target is 33$ stoploss is 38$

STP .. good opportunity

Many continue pattern formed during fall a stock ( triangle - flag -pennant ). Finally stock reach to bottom and forming head and shoulders pattern but the volume is not encouraging.

So .. my plan is buy stock my target is 12.5$ and stoploss 10.3$

 

Brief view on OIL

According to elliott wave principles, oil price moving as a wave 2 which is correction wave started in 4 Jul. till now, the anticipating move will be deep down near to  support 70$ then around  to 66$. 

In addition, trend channel play a good rule to define the support and resistance, also give a good signal of entry in oil and exist with huge profit.

oil and gold are in bearish mood ;)

ATHR

28 Jul

its was a good trade, ATHR drop from 30$ to 27$, with PUT option 3$ make a big difference ..

hope see another trade.

15 Jul

One of uses a MA. is to define support and resistance. In above chart the ATHR react perfectly with 35MA. Now the price push up to 35 MA to test it. What make this a good resistance is shooting star candle which mean the traders still in bearish mood. 

Tomorrow trading will be crucial.

iam bearish and i will trading a PUT option for this stock when confirmation clear.

DJI by elliot wave perspective

Yesterday it was impressive trading day, we saw how DJI cross over 50MA, ٍHowever i still with bearish mood. No one of indicator give a clear signal that support bullish trend.

Sometimes when market do not give a clear view, i use elliott wave as a consult tool that make the picture more clearly. 

i try to count a DJI, In spite of there many counting are acceptable but all other count in same way, The way where leading market to new lows.

Penetrating 11200 , lead to change everything.

ORCL nice short setup

ORCL was under close observation last days. the fall from April top was a impulse wave either wave A or wave 1, after that the stock moved sideway forming a correction wave (flat wave) as a B wave or 2 wave, what the next step is forming a decline movement as a wave C or 3, that was by using a elliott wave principles.

Technically, ORCL in resistance area which was a support in FEB, is same area where 38.2% Fibonacci retracement located, that give a good position to consider a resistance.

 

By using a candlesticks , the stock show a indecision trading when forming a small body candles. Shorting stock or buying a put option is the plan to trade with stoploss above 23.7$

good luck

 

15 Jul.

Although the stoploss was activated, still the opinion about ORCL is bearish. I am waiting another signal to short it.

Indices VS Trendline & SMA 50

In this post we will see strength the resistance represented in down trendline and 50 simple mov. avr. In next few days must be a crucial days which will defined the winner.

DJI

SPX

COMPQ

Russel 2000

what is the significant thing is all indices are below 50 MA, that good sign of bearish mood in market. The shorting or buying a PUT option is a good deal these days .

11 Jul

There something interesting here, during falling a indices from top of April, the OBV confirmed that decline as shown in chart. so any penetrating the down trend in OBV will give a good signal that indices will change direction.

Some fibonacci tools used in Gold

Its very interesting when see some tools give a good level area which represented as support pr resistance, such as Fibonacci fan, Fibonacci channel  and Fibonacci retracement.

first i would to  show Fibonacci channel and how its  work by chart:

see the highlight sowing respectful of fibo numbers

Next i would show the fibo fan and see how  its doing good job to find the critical level 

FRom low to 2 top

from low to last top

MA double top on the way

what separating stock to heading to target 160$ is a support that will break soon or later ....watch it

  

Easy chart

see how it easy to track gold by just candlesticks and trendline also with support and resistance.

EUR-USD .. possible reverse head & shoulders

a possible head and shoulders on way that in technical  perspective